Author：Zheng Zheng
Source: GPLP
Apple’s ” good luck” is flowing away.
Is Apple’s “good luck” about to run out?
“Every dog has its day”originated from the ancient calendar.
It means that good things don’t last forever, people have bad days sometimes.
Some of Apple’s recent experiences reflect the principle of ” Every dog has its day”.
According to public information, Apple’s stock price has been roaring since August 2019, which was originally in a good situation. However, it turned down suddenly in late February 2020, showing a “dilemma” that fell more than rose.
(daily K line of apple’s share price from January 2 to March 30, 2020)
This is mainly due to the impact of public health events. As a result, more than $300 billion of apple’s market value was evaporated following four circuit breakers in U.S. stocks.
In addition, the “lockdown” policies implemented in many places such as Malaysia has caused a major setback in Apple’s supply chain. The large-scale shutdown of offline retail stores has reduced marketing channels.
It’s not over yet. Just came the news, another main factory was closed, added another shadow to Apple.
Foxconn closed in India
According to foreign media reports, India implemented a 21-day city closure order in 75 administrative regions across the country on the 24th, and the Foxconn’s plant in India is expected to close until April 14.
According to the data, Foxconn’s India plant will produce iPhone XR in Chennai from October 2019. At the same time, Apple plans to expand production at Foxconn’s Indian plant, including the production of the latest iPhone 11 series. In addition to making phones for the Indian domestic market, Apple also plans to export equipment from India to other markets, including Europe. According to reports, the production of iPhone in India can save more than 20% of production costs.
At the same time, the significance of India to Apple is not only the upstream profits brought by the reduction of production costs, but also the downstream profits brought by the huge market.
According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) mobile phone market quarterly tracking report, India’s total smartphone shipments in 2019 were 152.5 million units, up 8% from a year earlier. It has become the second largest smartphone market after China in 2019.
(China Industry Information Network)
Apple benefited from the popularity of the iPhone XR in India, where shipments of the device grew 41 percent in 2019 from a year earlier. Some analysts said that judging from apple’s performance in the Indian market in recent months, 2020 is likely to be apple’s strongest year in the country.
Unfortunately, every dog has its day. Analysts’ predictions have not yet reached the initial stage, and the shutdown of the Foxconn plant in India has to make the market re-examine the future performance of Apple.
On the one hand, the demise of the iPhoneXR, the sales foreman, will mean a drop in sales in India. On the other hand, the temporary loss of this low-cost manufacturing “battlefield” means that apple’s global supply chain will add some pressure.
The Chinese market is not satisfactory
In the end, whether it is market loss or supply chain stress, the root cause of the adverse impact on apple is the impact of public health events. And as this kind of influence gradually withdraws from China, Chinese market has become apple’s next focal point undoubtedly.
However, judging from Apple’s market performance trends in China in recent years, this market may not be a “springboard” for reversing the situation.
According to statistics, in February 2020, the retail share of Apple ’s 4500-5000 yuan mobile phones and 5,000-8000 yuan mobile phones fell by 40.71% and 5.95%, respectively, and the retail share of mobile phones at various prices fell by 24.47%.
In contrast, during the same period, the local Chinese brand Huawei, its 4500-5000 yuan mobile phones and 5,000-8000 yuan mobile phones ’retail share increased by 41.55% and 35.21%, respectively, and the retail share of mobile phones at various prices fell by 12.66%.
(zhihu blogger@安乎都护府长史)
If a single piece of data is not enough to serve as a necessary condition for a judgement, then combining Apple’s overall performance in the Chinese market from 2016 to the present is even more persuasive.
(zhihu blogger@安乎都护府长史)
As of February 2020, Apple ’s 4,000-8000 yuan mobile phone retail share is in a downward trend as a whole. Huawei started from the end of 2016, and the retail share of mobile phones in all gears has increased. Today, its 4000-5000 yuan high-end mobile phone share has surpassed Apple.
To sum up, as the original saying goes, “every dog has its day “. Apple in the Chinese market is no longer the original perennial “top” smartphone market industry benchmark now. With the rise of local brands, Apple’s space in the Chinese market has become increasingly limited.
At the same time, at a time when Apple is being “pinned” by public health events, it is still under pressure to reversing the situation with relying on Chinese market, and it is even harder to predict the future.
